The New Ten Plagues

Here are ten interesting points worth knowing about what is happening in Egypt, that I have not seen widely reported:

1. The wannabe leader of the protests is Mohammad El Baradei. Many media have called him a reformer or democracy advocate, seemingly showing up from out of nowhere. However, El Baradei is not a new face. He was already campaigning for the Egyptian presidency in the elections scheduled for September 2011. What's more, his main endorsement, and reportedly, his financial backing were from the Muslim Brotherhood. The "unity" government El Baradei is calling for is unity between himself and his main constituency. Even if that constituency wasn't fundamentalist Muslims, it would portend badly for "democratic reform."

2. Only El Baradei and Westerners are talking about freedom and rights. Actual protesters are almost exclusively talking about (a) hating Mubarak (b) a need for economic improvement. Egypt's economy is poor and the citizens seem to be looking for a short term solution. The liberation of Egypt may turn out a lot like the "liberation" of Cuba, in which the wealth of too few elites was "liberated" and dispersed to the masses. In other words: communism. Of course, this might be couched in terms of "Zakat" - Islamic charity by the Muslim Brotherhood.

3. Egypt is a considered the largest Arab country but it has hardly ever been ruled by Arabs. It was the seat of the second largest Shia Empire and mostly ruled by Shia Berbers and Albanians/Turks for most of its modern history. The serf culture runs deep and Egyptian Arabs were used to second class status. Nasser's Pan-Arabism invigorated Arab pride, but it basically fizzled when Nasser essentially let the USSR take over Egypt.

4. Mubarak appointed Omar Suleiman as his Vice President, seemingly, to dispel the idea that he intended to name his son, Gamal as successor. Suleiman is well respected in the army, is known to be close to Israel and is well entrenched in the old regime. He has considered himself the true heir to Mubarak, as Egypt, since 1952, has been ruled by a military dynasty. Suleiman is also hated by the Muslim Brotherhood. No one was fooled that Suleiman represented any change - so why appoint him? Perhaps Suleiman forced his way in with a simple threat: Make me your successor and I'll make sure the army protects you. Don't, and I'll join the protesters and launch a military coup. An alternative explanation is that Mubarak wants Suleiman to be held responsible for any crackdown. He could be throwing Suleiman to the wolves so that his son could still be considered as a future leader. Maybe both?

5. The Muslim Brotherhood has taken a shadowy role in these protests but, besides El Baradei, there are other small signs of Islamic influence in the protests. Many news agencies reported on protesters throwing stones at pictures of Mubarak. The symbolism of this, lost on many non-Muslims, is the equation of Mubarak with the Jamarat – the symbolic demon at which Muslims throw stones during the Hajj. While Western media think of this as just an expression of anger at Mubarak, it means much more to the Muslim protesters and turns the battle for a new regime into a Jihad. Furthermore, the Ulemma (Islamic Scholars – controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood) declared that the rioters killed in the protests have the status of Shahidin – holy martyrs. This means that the all-important "Rule of 40" will apply.

6. "The Rule of 40" was a key component in both the radicalization and success of the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979. Every time protests were quashed or fizzled, the 40-day mourning period of some dead protester ended. The memorial service on the 40^th day drew together large crowds and gave the religious leaders the opportunity to fire up the crowds for more protests. More protests led to more deaths, more deaths led to more memorials and more memorials led to more fiery fundamentalist sermons. So far, relatively few protesters have been killed in Egypt, but by declaring the dead as martyrs, more people will feel the need to attend their memorial services and the Rule of 40 will perpetuate the Islamic takeover. Ironically, the Muslim Brotherhood stands less of a chance if the protesters take down Mubarak quickly, without much assistance from Islamic rhetoric.

7. Despite the radical nature of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is no need to prepare for immediate warfare. Egypt is still a cracked reed – a horrible economy and not prepared for any immediate conflict.

8. Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip there has been eerie silence from Hamas. That's good news for Sderot, but weird in that one would expect mass rallies of solidarity with their Muslim Brotherhood sponsors or at least some celebratory rockets on Sderot. It might be that they are lying low just as the Muslim Brotherhood is acting behind the scenes for now.  

9. Al-Jazeera seems to be the guiding hand behind the delegitimization of Arab governments, and for spurring protesters to arise and organize. People are beginning to notice this, especially Mahmoud Abbas, who claimed that Al-Jazeera had declared war on Fatah and the PLO, and by the Mubarak regime, which closed Al-Jazeera's Cairo bureau. But who is behind Al-Jazeera? Their news director is Whadh Khanfir (hat tip, Dashiell Shapiro), a Palestinian from Jenin, with an obvious bone to pick with the PLO. But the true power behind the network is the Emir of Qatar, Hamad ibn Khalifa al-Thani. As the leader of Qatar since overthrowing his father in 1995, al-Thani has built Al-Jazeera to give voice to the most dangerous extremists in the Arab world, usually suppressed by regimes desperate to maintain ties with the United States. Al-Thani created the soapbox for Usama Bin-Laden and seems to admire the al-Qaeda goals of subverting western-facing Arab governments and restoring a Caliphate. However, fomenting popular uprisings seems to be an odd occupation for the decadent dictator of a small republic chosen to host the 2022 World Cup. Perhaps Al-Thani thinks that Iran can protect him, perhaps he's afraid Saudi Arabia will shut him down, perhaps he just wants better TV ratings. Whatever his reasons, Al-Jazeera is intent on spreading Tunisian style chaos throughout the Arab World, country by country.

10. Sudan is next!