Conspiricismism

Hassan Nasrallah is obviously a proponent of Conspiricismism. Conspiricismism is not (as many believe) a belief in conspiracies, but a belief in the belief in conspiracies by others.

There is scant other explanation for the show the leader of Hizbullah put on for the Arab and Muslim world on Monday evening.

Recently, the UN commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri focused its attention on Hizbullah and implied it would soon publish a report implicating Hizbullah members in the murder.

Some people believe that this belief: that the release of the Hariri findings was imminent, was what led to the serious incident on August 3^rd where the Lebanese Army assassinated an Israeli commander and heavily shelled a position inside Israel.

Regardless, it was clearly this belief that led Nasrallah to hold a large video press conference in which he blamed Israel for Hariri’s murder.

Without much in a way of explanation as to why he waited until now to implicate Israel, Nasrallah went on to surmise that Israel supposedly killed Hariri to initiate some sort of backlash against Syria in Lebanon (ie what actually happened). His major proof were videos of the coastal route along which Hariri’s motorcade was bombed on February 14, 2005. Nasrallah claims that they intercepted signals from an Israeli drone which took the pictures and that an accused Israeli spy was actually at the rally at which Hariri was killed.

A more plausible explanation is that Hizbullah took the surveillance photos themselves (since Hizbullah has bragged about flying drones over Israeli airspace, most recently last month.) and that Nasrallah just gave away the modus operandi of a car-bombing that he orchestrated.

So why would Hizbullah show its hand? Was this press conference a last move of desperation before the Arab public turns against it for eliminating a (somewhat) beloved Arab leader?

Not by a long shot! Nasrallah was simply practicing Conspiricismism. He felt that any pile of lies he promulgated among the Arab public (his main target – he couldn’t care less if the USA thinks he killed Hariri), that was then vociferously denied by Israel, would lead the Arabs to disbelieve Israel, believe “his eminence” Nasrallah, and believe that the UN Comission was just part of some Zionist conspiracy to stir conflict among the Arabs. Nasrallah, thus, attempted to marginalize the investigating committee and anything they may report. That’s Conspiracismism.

Of course Israeli and American officials described the whole press conference as ridiculous and saw it as further proof of Hizbullah’s guilt. The only problem I have is that I am a Conspiricismist, too!

I believe that Nasrallah’s press conference ranks as a brilliant example of Conspiricism, almost to the level of the lies spread about Mossad involvement in the September 11, 2001 attacks. That theory, it seems, was cooked up by a Malaysian government official but, worldwide is the most accepted theory! On a global scale, it far surpasses any theory or proof of Al-Qaeda’s involvement.

Similarly, Nasrallah’s comments were reported as incontrovertible truth by Iran’s national media, by Al Jazeera and by Al Arabiya.

These networks provide the information to the vast majority of Muslims and their stories are often picked up by non-Muslim media such as China’s People's Daily. They provide sufficient media “weight” that many western networks also give the crazy accusations some credence.

So, through Conspiricismism, the prevailing majority theory as of this morning is that Israel killed Rafiq Hariri – not the organization that had videos tracking his movements, or that Hariri was warned would murder him.

This is an important lesson to learn when discussing Israeli PR. Does it matter if UNIFIL confirms that Israel never crossed Lebanon’s border last week, and that the border maintenance was coordinated and announced ahead of time? To some responsible governments it might matter, and to Israelis it is of some importance, but the effect on the majority of the world’s population is that they believe UNIFIL is just a part of the Zionist conspiracy. This, more than poverty or anything Israel or the US does, pushes further radicalism.

So what can we do? Instead of refuting ridiculous stories, which only increases the furor of conspiracy believers, we must embarrass those who perpetrate the lies. Don’t ask Al Jazeera why they believe Nasrallah, ask them why such a brave resistance fighter who praises martyrdom, didn’t appear at the press conference in person. Ask why Bashar Assad has tried to close the Hariri probe. Perhaps Israel should hire some British tabloid photographers to catch Mullahs with their pants down (literally), or with their hands in the till.

Whatever the case, reasonable proof and logical arguments have no effect on adherents of Conspiricismism. The only way to defeat it is by recognizing its existence (possibly by adding the word to major dictionaries) and by combating its effects with wilder, less rational ideas.