Back to Khartoum

We are just one month away from the 43rd anniversary of the famous Khartoum Conference, at which the Arab League declared its reaction to the Arab defeat in the Six-Day War: no negotiations with Israel, no peace with Israel and no recognition of Israel.

Eventually, both Egypt and Jordan entered into peace treaties with Israel, largely to their benefit, but the spirit of Khartoum lives on.

Last week, the Arab League held a conference, which, among other things, dealt with negotiations with Israel. Despite widespread reports that the Arab League “endorsed” direct negotiations, the actual resolution stated that Mahmoud Abbas could decide if and when he wanted to directly negotiate with Israel. Since Abbas had already told them all that he didn’t want to negotiate, the resolution was no different than the one delivered at Khartoum – no negotiating with Israel, which leads to no recognition of Israel by the PLO and, obviously, no peace!
“But, wait!” say the enthusiasts, if the Palestinians don’t want peace, why did Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat offer Israel “the best deal ever?” Well, he didn’t, despite what the headlines read. Erekat himself only said that they had offered the deal to the American representative, George Mitchell. Regardless of whether Netanyahu or anyone else ever saw this plan, it was not a offer for negotiation but rather “a plan to end the conflict” – a Final Status Agreement dictated by only one party, without negotiations nor an invitation to use this secretive plan as a basis for negotiations.

I would point out that presenting such plans as a fait accompli violates the Oslo agreements, but that piece of paper has now had so many holes punched in it over the last 17 years, it couldn’t qualify for Swiss cheese.

Of course neither the Israelis nor the Arabs have a huge incentive to make peace right now. Despite Netanyahu’s repeated calls for negotiations, the PM knows that no plan can effectively pass public critique while Hamas still rules Gaza and continues its regular rain of rockets on Israeli towns and cities to remind us of that fact.

(It should be noted that despite the recent return to media coverage of Hamas’ bombardment of Western Israel, the surge in violence started well before the Arab League “endorsement.” Yours truly tried to point this out in a blog post “Oil and Blood,” one month ago.)

Recently, Islamic Jihad, the original Iranian proxy in Israel, has said it will renew martyrdom operations, read: suicide bombings. As well, recent Fatah elections ensured that the old guard of Fatah continues to control the PLO, making any negotiated agreement unlikely, from the Arab side, as well.
Knowing the facts, the USA wants to create the pretense of negotiations to pat itself on the back for getting to the same position that three previous administrations have accomplished, without expecting any better results.
So why did the Arab League not just repeat the mantra of Khartoum outright? For two reasons:
(1) Settlements – with building in Judea and Samaria set to resume in September, everyone in the quartet and Arab League is looking for an excuse to extend the construction freeze. By offering the slightest hope for negotiations, they hope to increase pressure from the quartet powers to this end.

(2) Iran – While the PLO and its chairman, Dr. No, have little incentive to cave to American pressure, since past instances of refusal have only increased world pressure on Israel, the Arab states have a compelling reason to feign cooperation with US demands. The US is pliable and ready to make compromises, meaning it is a much-preferred regional arbiter to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Arab leaders have stated, both privately and publicly, that Iran must be stopped before acquiring nuclear weapons capability. While the US can fathom a containment policy for its own citizens and those of Europe, the Arabs know they will quickly fall under Iranian influence and their regimes may be in danger.
Netanyahu has boldly stated that negotiations will start by mid-August, though it is difficult to imagine with whom he intends to negotiate. More likely, Netanyahu is staying the course of transferring the responsibility for the “peace process” on to the shoulders of Abbas in preparation for whatever comes next.
The Khartoum resolution effectively started the War of Attrition. What will happen in the months following Khartoum II is anybody’s guess.